A Pair of (Former) Aces...

Sorry I haven't posted in a few days. I've been a little busy. That said, I'm back to posting.



As I believe I said when I first defined the term sleeper, I do not always use it to refer to prospects, at least with baseball cards. Therefore, today's sleeper post, which covers two pitchers once considered aces, will make no mention of prospects.

The picture above is of two 2006 Bowman Originals signed cards of Dontrelle Willis (2006 Bowman) and Francisco Liriano (2006 Bowman Parenth-RC). If you were to have bought these cards in the off-season between 2006 and 2007, you likely would have spent a decent amount of money on them (at least as much as the somewhat unpopular Bowman Originals set would allow). Nowadays, however, you can find these cards on eBay for less than $10. I consider both of them to be very good values. Now, let's break them down individually and see why I think so.

Dontrelle Willis was, in 2005, one of the most ballyhooed pitchers in baseball. A 20 game winner, Willis was seen as a rising star and the future ace of the Florida Marlins. In fact, the Marlins were so confident in Willis that they dealt away ace Josh Beckett to the Red Sox. And it was all downhill from there for the man they called the D-Train.

The first thing one notices about Dontrelle Willis, if they've ever seen him pitch, is his really funky windup. He turns halfway around, kicks his leg high into the air, and then spins back, arms and legs flying every which way. How then would I evaluate Dontrelle's mechanics? Just as I would those of any other pitcher. Willis makes the M, but not in the conventional way that most pitchers do. Most pitchers flip their elbows up after making the M. But Dontrelle drops his elbow safely below shoulder level extremely quickly. Although his M is unlikely to cause injury inunto itself, it could still cause a minor timing problem. But honestly, if Dontrelle can repeat his delivery, I don't think it's going to be as big an issue with most of the pitchers with this flaw.

But there is one thing that Dontrelle Willis does that I don't like. When he follows through, he flies open with his glove and seems to pay his glove side shoulder little attention. This has led Dr. Tom House, USC's pitching coach, to say that Willis has the worst glove side mechanics he's ever seen. Although I disagree with a lot of what Dr. House has to say about a pitcher's arm action, I in general agree about what he says regarding glove side mechanics.

The Detroit Tigers have not overlooked what Dr. House has been saying. They've tried redesigning his mechanics with a focus on staying closed. But Willis has struggled with repeating his new delivery. Perhaps if he can go back to his old mechanics with the lone modification of keeping his glove side shoulder closed, he'll be able to recapture some of his lost magic.

At this point in his career, I believe Dontrelle Willis to be a reclamation project who needs a change of scenery. Can some project-friendly pitching coach tap Willis' talent? Probably. Look at other pitchers who were written off due to a need to change scenery and/or inability to repeat their mechanics that came back...Oliver Perez, Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, and Heath Bell, to name a few. Am I guaranteeing Willis can even be a shadow of his former self? No. But am I saying it's possible? Yes.

Willis' certified signed cards go for very little on eBay. Ignore the BIN's for now and go straight for the auctions. You can definitely score a card for under $15, probably for under $10, and if you're lucky, under $5-$6. Don't spend too much on a signed card of the D-Train, but don't rule him out, either.

Then we have Francisco Liriano. Obtained in the disastrous (for the Giants) A.J. Pierzynski trade by the Minnesota Twins, Liriano missed the entire 2007 season recovering from Tommy John Surgery after having a spectacular 2006 season. Liriano was loaded with talent. He threw a terrific fastball, a flat out filthy slider, and a good changeup. So, how would I categorize him mechanically?

Francisco Liriano, with regards to his mechanics, is actually a bit of an oddity. Before he had TJ surgery, he was a nightmare. He made the M (and violently), he hyperabducted his elbow, he had a max effort delivery, he threw a ton of supinated sliders...everything about him had a warning sign written all over it. But after he came back, he changed.

Francisco Liriano, post-TJ surgery, no longer makes the M. Although his mechanics are still less than ideal, the glaring flaws are gone. Most pitchers, even after returning from an injury, barely (if at all) change their mechanics. Liriano is a very notable exception. Further, to remove stress on his UCL, he's throwing fewer sliders. All of a sudden, Liriano has gone from trainwreck to very promising pitcher with the potential to stay in the Majors for a significant amount of time.

But even after his change, Liriano still had one thing going against him: he was spending virtually the entire 2008 season in the Minors. Granted, he was dominating AAA ball, but he was still in the Minors. When he came back to the Majors, he was no longer eye-popping. Pretty good, but no longer the super-ace the hobby was expecting or hoping for. But what a lot of hobbyists forget is that he's still recovering.

Liriano's BABIP is not abnormally low. It's actually right in the league average range. That means that if he stays healthy (and he probably will), there's no reason to think that he'll stop putting up an ERA+ of 120. His K/9 will also probably go up a little, although not to 2006 levels. This guy is something special and while he's beginning to lose his sleeper status, I'd buy while I still could. He's far more a lock than Willis to be a top-flight starter, perhaps even a number two or even number one again. Although the days of $10 pack cert Liriano autographs are over, you can still get him for under $20 (even with BIN's), and I would encorage you to try for him while he's still at that price.

Anyway, I'm back to blogging and loving it. More tomorrow.

Sleeper of the Day (Pt. 2) Plus a Sleeper Many Missed...

How the mighty can fall and how the fallen can become mighty. That's a pretty good way to sum up cards of sleepers. Today, I'm going to cover a guy who was once a sleeper that has since become a solid pitcher and a sleeper whose potential has yet to be truly realized. First the former.



This is a 2003 Donruss Elite Extra Edition Turn of the Century Diecuts signed rookie card of Edwin Jackson. If you're following baseball right now, Edwin Jackson is doing pretty well. He has good mechanics from an injury prevention standpoint (he no longer flies open), can now repeat his delivery, and pitches for a good team in the Tampa Bay Rays. Last year, however, though he finally grasped repeating his delivery, he still flew open and had an abnormally high BABIP (in the .360's, I think). And that's when I got this card for about $5.

Simply put, no pitcher's BABIP can be in the .360's for that long. The guy is just unlucky as heck. He quite literally had to improve. But Jackson's cards weren't always that cheap. From 2003-2005, he was a highly touted prospect in the Dodgers organization who seemed joined at the hip with left-handed phenom Greg Miller (who has struggled significantly as of late; he can't repeat his delivery, has relatively poor mechanics from an injury prevention standpoint, and is just somewhat dead in the water). His 2003 Donruss Elite Extra Edition Diecut Autograph RC went for about $30 on eBay. But after his trade to the then-Tampa Bay Devil Rays and then struggling so mightily in 2007, his stock had dropped so far that one could easily obtain his cards for cheap.

Though he's not back up to his 2003-2005 pricing, Jackson's signed rookie cards now go for about $15-$20. He's the perfect example of a sleeper that woke up, started performing well, and his card has regained a lot of its value. If you didn't get a 2003 Donruss Elite Extra Edition Edwin Jackson rookie card (they're all signed), then unfortunately, you missed out. But there are plenty of other sleepers out there that you can try for...




This is a signed 8x10 of Gerrit Cole. You may remember him as the guy the Yankees drafted this year who opted to go to college instead. The photo is of him playing (albeit batting) in the 2007 AFLAC All-American Game. I got the photo before Cole was even drafted, so as you might gather, I'm a pretty serious prospector. I paid a shade under $20, including the PSA/DNA QuickOpnion Fee. I know, not the absolute cheapest I can get, but I like the dealer and enjoy following the AFLAC All-American Game prospects as they develop.

Before anyone asks, Cole's pitching mechanics are about on the borderline. His scapular load isn't THAT violent, and while he hyperabducts, it's rather borderline and not that severe. He also has had his fastball clocked at 101 mph with good movement and projects extremely well as a closer (his secondary pitches lack polish). The talent is certainly there.

When Gerrit Cole was drafted by the Yankees, his signature's price went up. WAY up. You saw autographs of him actually selling on eBay in excess of $30 without so much as a COA, to say nothing of reputable dealers getting about $60 for him. Of course, it's impossible to have sold all the Gerrit Cole autographs, and now you're starting to see a few people actually reselling the ones they bought at a loss. So, how much does a Gerrit Cole autograph go for now, after he's turned the Yankees down? Well, I'll let you answer it yourself first. Go to eBay.com. Search "Gerrit Cole." Ignore the BIN's. Right now, I'm seeing ONE 2007 Bowman AFLAC promo card of him with zero bids. But there will be a few autographs over the coming weeks.

Odds are you'll be able to get a signature of him for between $5 and $15. Remember, this is a guy who projects as a reliever who throws over 100 mph with good movement. Because any team that drafts him (two years from now at the age of 21) is unlikely to use him as a starter, he's a relatively safe buy. Low risk, high reward. And besides, even if a crumb-ball team drafts him, remember, he's a closer. He's not going to suffer from Matt Cain Syndrome where his W/L is pathetic despite pitching really well (and incidentally, this is why Matt Cain was a sleeper for much of 2007). I like the odds on Gerrit Cole and would be willing to take a flier on him. More either later or tomorrow.

Sleeper of the Day

2008 Bowman Chrome Refractor Fautino de los Santos First Year Card

Well, I figure since I'm going to talk so much about sleepers, I'll do one per day, since there are so many. Okay, actually, I'm getting ahead of myself. First off, you ask, how do I define a sleeper? A sleeper is a player that has promise or, heck, he could even be making his case for the Hall of Fame, but he's overshadowed by any one of the following: sudden poor performance, injury, regression to the mean, being overshadowed by another player, or simply having an unlucky BABIP (both for batters and pitchers).

Typically, the cards of a sleeper will not sell at full price. If they are, then just move to another auction. But I'll get it started with our first sleeper: Fautino de los Santos. Fautino de los Santos is a right-handed pitcher who throws gas and has three quality pitches. He pitches in the talent-rich Oakland A's system, but had an arm injury this season and is sitting on the DL. As such, because nobody's hearing about him, his cards are markedly down in value.

But wait, this is a pitcher with an arm injury. How are his mechanics? Fortunately, I taped the 2007 All Star Futures Game, where Fautino de los Santos pitched. He seems to get his elbow above and behind the level of his shoulder in a state of hyperabduction, but not by a lot. He also badly flew open with his glove and wasn't really repeating his delivery well. If he's able to bounce back from the arm surgery, repeats his delivery, and stays closed, then he's not that bad a bet to succeed.

So, how do his stats look? Well, pretty sick...here they are...

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=34571

Even though he has a 5.29 ERA this year, that's a bit deceptive. His line isn't terrible. Although he's given up 29 hits (inflating his WHIP), his BB/9, K/9, and HR rate have all stayed pretty much the same as they were last year. Realistically, he's projectable as a middle of the rotation starter on a good staff.

So, what about his baseball cards? Well, Fautino de los Santos was a surprise omission from the 2007 Bowman Draft Futures Game subset. His 2008 Bowman Chrome card (see the top of the page), which is autographed, was relatively well-anticipated until his injury. Then he just sort of dropped off the map in card collecting circles. He shouldn't have...he has a hill of talent and is all of 22 years old...but he did. Something else that you may have been wondering about, by the way: why am I repeatedly calling this guy "Fautino" when Topps says he's "Faustino?" Simple. Topps made a booboo. While "Faustino" is a far more common name, it's not his name. In fact, look at the back of the card and it's also spelled "Fautino."

Now, keeping that last paragraph in mind, go over to eBay. Type in "Bowman Fautino de los Santos." There's not much there, is there? But there are a few cards and they have bids. Now try searching for "Bowman Faustino de los Santos." What do you get? That's right! More cards and fewer bids. The people who know just what a prospect this guy is know how to spell his name, both buyers and sellers. As for the sellers that misspelled it, well, they may simply have looked at the front of the card and put it up with the rest of the signed 2008 Bowman Chrome cards. But very few prospective BUYERS are going to do that. Instead, they'll look for the correct spelling. Thus, you can probably save yourself a couple dollars by buying Fautino's card A) before the sellers realize they've got his name spelled wrong and B) while he's still injured. Heck, you see that Refractor on the top of the page? That cost me $7.94 shipped. I was the lone bidder. And the seller had a 100% feedback rating.

Always be alert for commonly misspelled names on eBay. I was also able to score a signed 1993 Upper Deck Baseball Assistance Team signed card of Ron Necciai (K'ed 27 in a 9 inning game...yes, I used PSA/DNA's QuickOpinion Service, and yes, it is a real autograph) a while back for just a few dollars because the seller had misspelled his name. Tongue-twisters like Ron Necciai (pronounced "NETCH-eye") or guys with uncommon name spellings like Fautino de los Santos are just the beginning, too. Have a player's last name that ends in "-ski?" Try "-sky" and even "-ske" and I'll bet you find stuff. Not necessarily good stuff, but it pops up now and then.

Fautino de los Santos is a sleeper for numerous reasons right now. But by this time in 2009, he'll either have busted out or just flat busted. For under $8, though, how can you go wrong?