Thursday, August 28, 2008

Sleeper of the Day


2008 Bowman Chrome Refractor Fautino de los Santos First Year Card

Well, I figure since I'm going to talk so much about sleepers, I'll do one per day, since there are so many. Okay, actually, I'm getting ahead of myself. First off, you ask, how do I define a sleeper? A sleeper is a player that has promise or, heck, he could even be making his case for the Hall of Fame, but he's overshadowed by any one of the following: sudden poor performance, injury, regression to the mean, being overshadowed by another player, or simply having an unlucky BABIP (both for batters and pitchers).

Typically, the cards of a sleeper will not sell at full price. If they are, then just move to another auction. But I'll get it started with our first sleeper: Fautino de los Santos. Fautino de los Santos is a right-handed pitcher who throws gas and has three quality pitches. He pitches in the talent-rich Oakland A's system, but had an arm injury this season and is sitting on the DL. As such, because nobody's hearing about him, his cards are markedly down in value.

But wait, this is a pitcher with an arm injury. How are his mechanics? Fortunately, I taped the 2007 All Star Futures Game, where Fautino de los Santos pitched. He seems to get his elbow above and behind the level of his shoulder in a state of hyperabduction, but not by a lot. He also badly flew open with his glove and wasn't really repeating his delivery well. If he's able to bounce back from the arm surgery, repeats his delivery, and stays closed, then he's not that bad a bet to succeed.

So, how do his stats look? Well, pretty sick...here they are...

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=34571

Even though he has a 5.29 ERA this year, that's a bit deceptive. His line isn't terrible. Although he's given up 29 hits (inflating his WHIP), his BB/9, K/9, and HR rate have all stayed pretty much the same as they were last year. Realistically, he's projectable as a middle of the rotation starter on a good staff.

So, what about his baseball cards? Well, Fautino de los Santos was a surprise omission from the 2007 Bowman Draft Futures Game subset. His 2008 Bowman Chrome card (see the top of the page), which is autographed, was relatively well-anticipated until his injury. Then he just sort of dropped off the map in card collecting circles. He shouldn't have...he has a hill of talent and is all of 22 years old...but he did. Something else that you may have been wondering about, by the way: why am I repeatedly calling this guy "Fautino" when Topps says he's "Faustino?" Simple. Topps made a booboo. While "Faustino" is a far more common name, it's not his name. In fact, look at the back of the card and it's also spelled "Fautino."

Now, keeping that last paragraph in mind, go over to eBay. Type in "Bowman Fautino de los Santos." There's not much there, is there? But there are a few cards and they have bids. Now try searching for "Bowman Faustino de los Santos." What do you get? That's right! More cards and fewer bids. The people who know just what a prospect this guy is know how to spell his name, both buyers and sellers. As for the sellers that misspelled it, well, they may simply have looked at the front of the card and put it up with the rest of the signed 2008 Bowman Chrome cards. But very few prospective BUYERS are going to do that. Instead, they'll look for the correct spelling. Thus, you can probably save yourself a couple dollars by buying Fautino's card A) before the sellers realize they've got his name spelled wrong and B) while he's still injured. Heck, you see that Refractor on the top of the page? That cost me $7.94 shipped. I was the lone bidder. And the seller had a 100% feedback rating.

Always be alert for commonly misspelled names on eBay. I was also able to score a signed 1993 Upper Deck Baseball Assistance Team signed card of Ron Necciai (K'ed 27 in a 9 inning game...yes, I used PSA/DNA's QuickOpinion Service, and yes, it is a real autograph) a while back for just a few dollars because the seller had misspelled his name. Tongue-twisters like Ron Necciai (pronounced "NETCH-eye") or guys with uncommon name spellings like Fautino de los Santos are just the beginning, too. Have a player's last name that ends in "-ski?" Try "-sky" and even "-ske" and I'll bet you find stuff. Not necessarily good stuff, but it pops up now and then.

Fautino de los Santos is a sleeper for numerous reasons right now. But by this time in 2009, he'll either have busted out or just flat busted. For under $8, though, how can you go wrong?

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