Sleeper of the Day (Pt. 2) Plus a Sleeper Many Missed...

How the mighty can fall and how the fallen can become mighty. That's a pretty good way to sum up cards of sleepers. Today, I'm going to cover a guy who was once a sleeper that has since become a solid pitcher and a sleeper whose potential has yet to be truly realized. First the former.



This is a 2003 Donruss Elite Extra Edition Turn of the Century Diecuts signed rookie card of Edwin Jackson. If you're following baseball right now, Edwin Jackson is doing pretty well. He has good mechanics from an injury prevention standpoint (he no longer flies open), can now repeat his delivery, and pitches for a good team in the Tampa Bay Rays. Last year, however, though he finally grasped repeating his delivery, he still flew open and had an abnormally high BABIP (in the .360's, I think). And that's when I got this card for about $5.

Simply put, no pitcher's BABIP can be in the .360's for that long. The guy is just unlucky as heck. He quite literally had to improve. But Jackson's cards weren't always that cheap. From 2003-2005, he was a highly touted prospect in the Dodgers organization who seemed joined at the hip with left-handed phenom Greg Miller (who has struggled significantly as of late; he can't repeat his delivery, has relatively poor mechanics from an injury prevention standpoint, and is just somewhat dead in the water). His 2003 Donruss Elite Extra Edition Diecut Autograph RC went for about $30 on eBay. But after his trade to the then-Tampa Bay Devil Rays and then struggling so mightily in 2007, his stock had dropped so far that one could easily obtain his cards for cheap.

Though he's not back up to his 2003-2005 pricing, Jackson's signed rookie cards now go for about $15-$20. He's the perfect example of a sleeper that woke up, started performing well, and his card has regained a lot of its value. If you didn't get a 2003 Donruss Elite Extra Edition Edwin Jackson rookie card (they're all signed), then unfortunately, you missed out. But there are plenty of other sleepers out there that you can try for...




This is a signed 8x10 of Gerrit Cole. You may remember him as the guy the Yankees drafted this year who opted to go to college instead. The photo is of him playing (albeit batting) in the 2007 AFLAC All-American Game. I got the photo before Cole was even drafted, so as you might gather, I'm a pretty serious prospector. I paid a shade under $20, including the PSA/DNA QuickOpnion Fee. I know, not the absolute cheapest I can get, but I like the dealer and enjoy following the AFLAC All-American Game prospects as they develop.

Before anyone asks, Cole's pitching mechanics are about on the borderline. His scapular load isn't THAT violent, and while he hyperabducts, it's rather borderline and not that severe. He also has had his fastball clocked at 101 mph with good movement and projects extremely well as a closer (his secondary pitches lack polish). The talent is certainly there.

When Gerrit Cole was drafted by the Yankees, his signature's price went up. WAY up. You saw autographs of him actually selling on eBay in excess of $30 without so much as a COA, to say nothing of reputable dealers getting about $60 for him. Of course, it's impossible to have sold all the Gerrit Cole autographs, and now you're starting to see a few people actually reselling the ones they bought at a loss. So, how much does a Gerrit Cole autograph go for now, after he's turned the Yankees down? Well, I'll let you answer it yourself first. Go to eBay.com. Search "Gerrit Cole." Ignore the BIN's. Right now, I'm seeing ONE 2007 Bowman AFLAC promo card of him with zero bids. But there will be a few autographs over the coming weeks.

Odds are you'll be able to get a signature of him for between $5 and $15. Remember, this is a guy who projects as a reliever who throws over 100 mph with good movement. Because any team that drafts him (two years from now at the age of 21) is unlikely to use him as a starter, he's a relatively safe buy. Low risk, high reward. And besides, even if a crumb-ball team drafts him, remember, he's a closer. He's not going to suffer from Matt Cain Syndrome where his W/L is pathetic despite pitching really well (and incidentally, this is why Matt Cain was a sleeper for much of 2007). I like the odds on Gerrit Cole and would be willing to take a flier on him. More either later or tomorrow.

Sleeper of the Day

2008 Bowman Chrome Refractor Fautino de los Santos First Year Card

Well, I figure since I'm going to talk so much about sleepers, I'll do one per day, since there are so many. Okay, actually, I'm getting ahead of myself. First off, you ask, how do I define a sleeper? A sleeper is a player that has promise or, heck, he could even be making his case for the Hall of Fame, but he's overshadowed by any one of the following: sudden poor performance, injury, regression to the mean, being overshadowed by another player, or simply having an unlucky BABIP (both for batters and pitchers).

Typically, the cards of a sleeper will not sell at full price. If they are, then just move to another auction. But I'll get it started with our first sleeper: Fautino de los Santos. Fautino de los Santos is a right-handed pitcher who throws gas and has three quality pitches. He pitches in the talent-rich Oakland A's system, but had an arm injury this season and is sitting on the DL. As such, because nobody's hearing about him, his cards are markedly down in value.

But wait, this is a pitcher with an arm injury. How are his mechanics? Fortunately, I taped the 2007 All Star Futures Game, where Fautino de los Santos pitched. He seems to get his elbow above and behind the level of his shoulder in a state of hyperabduction, but not by a lot. He also badly flew open with his glove and wasn't really repeating his delivery well. If he's able to bounce back from the arm surgery, repeats his delivery, and stays closed, then he's not that bad a bet to succeed.

So, how do his stats look? Well, pretty sick...here they are...

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=34571

Even though he has a 5.29 ERA this year, that's a bit deceptive. His line isn't terrible. Although he's given up 29 hits (inflating his WHIP), his BB/9, K/9, and HR rate have all stayed pretty much the same as they were last year. Realistically, he's projectable as a middle of the rotation starter on a good staff.

So, what about his baseball cards? Well, Fautino de los Santos was a surprise omission from the 2007 Bowman Draft Futures Game subset. His 2008 Bowman Chrome card (see the top of the page), which is autographed, was relatively well-anticipated until his injury. Then he just sort of dropped off the map in card collecting circles. He shouldn't have...he has a hill of talent and is all of 22 years old...but he did. Something else that you may have been wondering about, by the way: why am I repeatedly calling this guy "Fautino" when Topps says he's "Faustino?" Simple. Topps made a booboo. While "Faustino" is a far more common name, it's not his name. In fact, look at the back of the card and it's also spelled "Fautino."

Now, keeping that last paragraph in mind, go over to eBay. Type in "Bowman Fautino de los Santos." There's not much there, is there? But there are a few cards and they have bids. Now try searching for "Bowman Faustino de los Santos." What do you get? That's right! More cards and fewer bids. The people who know just what a prospect this guy is know how to spell his name, both buyers and sellers. As for the sellers that misspelled it, well, they may simply have looked at the front of the card and put it up with the rest of the signed 2008 Bowman Chrome cards. But very few prospective BUYERS are going to do that. Instead, they'll look for the correct spelling. Thus, you can probably save yourself a couple dollars by buying Fautino's card A) before the sellers realize they've got his name spelled wrong and B) while he's still injured. Heck, you see that Refractor on the top of the page? That cost me $7.94 shipped. I was the lone bidder. And the seller had a 100% feedback rating.

Always be alert for commonly misspelled names on eBay. I was also able to score a signed 1993 Upper Deck Baseball Assistance Team signed card of Ron Necciai (K'ed 27 in a 9 inning game...yes, I used PSA/DNA's QuickOpinion Service, and yes, it is a real autograph) a while back for just a few dollars because the seller had misspelled his name. Tongue-twisters like Ron Necciai (pronounced "NETCH-eye") or guys with uncommon name spellings like Fautino de los Santos are just the beginning, too. Have a player's last name that ends in "-ski?" Try "-sky" and even "-ske" and I'll bet you find stuff. Not necessarily good stuff, but it pops up now and then.

Fautino de los Santos is a sleeper for numerous reasons right now. But by this time in 2009, he'll either have busted out or just flat busted. For under $8, though, how can you go wrong?

The M, Hyperabduction, and Baseball Cards...

Ferguson Jenkins not making the M, 2002 SP Legendary Cuts


Matt Peterson makes the M, 2003 Topps


Billy Wagner Hyperabducting, 2000 Topps


Okay, if you read my second post, you probably noticed I alluded to an oft-used term in pitching mechanics the "M" also known as the "Inverted W." For a clear explanation of the M/Inverted W and why exactly it's bad/at the very least not necessarily a good thing, go to either http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/ or http://www.chrisoleary.com/. Kyle and Chris know a heck of a lot more than I do regarding pitching mechanics. Let's get that straightened out. A variation on a theme with the M is known as "hyperabduction." That's when a pitcher gets his elbow above the level of his shoulder BEFORE he starts rotating his shoulders. Again, please go to the two websites above for clarification. Chris and Kyle will be glad to help you with any questions you may have if their FAQ's don't answer your questions.

So, do pitchers appear on baseball cards in these two potentially-injurious positions? Why yes. Yes they do. As you can see at the top of the page, Matt Peterson, a former Mets pitching prospect who went nowhere, is making the M/Inverted W in his scapular load. Although the photo isn't the greatest (Matt Peterson's head kinda hides his elbow), he *is not* making the safe scapular load position known as the Horizontal W. Perhaps not too surprisingly, Peterson's career has been riddled by arm injuries.

Below him, we see Billy Wagner's 2000 Topps card. See how Billy's elbow is above the level of his shoulder (even if his shoulders WERE level)? That's hyperabduction. But wait, you say, Billy Wagner has had a great, almost Hall of Fame caliber career! Yes, he has. One-inning relievers like Billy Wagner in general tend to have their careers impacted a lot less by things like the M or hyperabduction (although there are guys like John Rocker who burned out early because of it...like I said, you can't make completely sweeping judgements). Keep this in mind when buying the first year card or rookie card of a reliever whose mechanics may not look all that great. Don't let it scare you off as much.

But what's that first card with the cryptic caption? It's Fergie Jenkins, a Hall of Fame pitcher, and if you went to the website I'm suggesting you go to for the third time now, you might think he was making the M. But take a closer look. See how his body is leaning toward third base? Jenkins' arms are pointing straight backward (with his pitching arm side elbow a little BELOW the level of his shoulders), NOT above the level of his shoulders. That's a safe way to scap load and plenty of great pitchers (i.e. Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, and Bob Gibson) all did that. It's called the horizontal W. Brian Matusz from this year's draft does this. David Price from last year's draft does it (though his shoulders don't get quite as high). I believe Stephen Strasburg, next year's top draft prospect, does it. Bottom line, don't immediately jump to conclusions, as I once did with Jenkins (and Strasburg, for that matter).

Because this idea...using proper pitching mechanics to not overspend on guys' rookie cards...is just a little radical, I decided I'd cover it a lot for the first couple blog posts. However, now that you can see my basic premise, I'm going to move off the subject for a little while and get to one of my favorite topics...sleepers!

Test

This is a test to see if I can post pictures correctly. The photo is Steve Dalkowski (my favorite baseball player) throwing a side session in Spring Training in either 1962 or 1963. The guy in the dark glasses is Harry Brecheen, I'm pretty sure. And to the left of Steve's ankle, you can (hopefully) make out his signature where he signed it for me.

Predicting Pitching Prospects for Your Card Collection...

I got into prospecting...looking for promising Minor Leaguers on Major League rookie cards...around 1998. I initially hoped (as every kid did, I'm sure) that simply getting a bunch of rookies would pay off, but what changed that was 1999 Topps Traded. That was my first set where I bothered to put research into the prospects. I remember being at first excited, then disappointed, and then excited again when the one-per-box rookie autograph turned out to be Carlos Pena. But, as a wannabe pitcher (a combination of chronic illness and arm problems around the start of high school prevented me from going anywhere), I've always been fascinated with pitching prospects. And the one from 1999 Topps Traded that fascinated me the most was David Walling, the first round pick of the 1999 draft for the New York Yankees.

Well, the first thing you should know here is that I'm a fan of the New York Mets and the Detroit Tigers. I actually don't like the Yankees at all. But David Walling, at least according to the back of his baseball card and all the gaudy stats that had been printed about him in the New York papers, was "can't-miss." And he started out well in pro ball, blowing away 82 hitters in 80 innings with the 1999 Staten Island Yankees. He only walked 18 and gave up just 76 hits. In 2000, he started the season with the Tampa Yankees, going 7-2 in 59 innings, giving up 48 hits, walked 12, and struck out 48. His ERA was a sparkling 1.98. His WHIP was a microscopic 1.02. And then something went wrong.

In mid 2000, the Yankees felt that Walling deserved a promotion to AA Norwich. They were right. He'd deserved it. And in 85 innings there, he walked 26 and struck out 70. But he also gave up 101 hits and 50 earned runs in 85 innings. His ERA and WHIP shot up and his stock plummeted. Time and again, he would do terribly despite posting above average K/9 and BB/9 ratios. In 2003, at age 24, David Walling was out of baseball.

Arm problems, perhaps? Maybe he was pitching through an injury? Inability to repeat his mechanics? None of the above. David Walling suffered from a strange mental block where he'd get irrationally nervous with runners on base. So why am I posting about a prospect that frankly should have made it where no one could have predicted his downfall? Simple; I don't pretend to be some kind of guru who claims to be the be all and end all of predicting how well a pitching prospect might do. Even if a guy's arm action and timing are fine (like Walling's), there are other ways for him to fail. I'm just here to help with the guys I believe to have obvious problems.

Let's look at another pitching prospect that fascinated me in that 1999 Topps Traded set. His name was Ryan Mills, and his baseball card explained that his father, ex-MLB pitcher Dick Mills, was a pitching coach. One of those guys that sells videos and says you add 6-12 mph to your fastball. Oh, this guy ought to be good, I thought, being a naive 12-year-old kid. I was wrong.

Ryan Mills got his pitching elbow WAY up high; higher than shoulder level and up across his back in a position alternately called the "M" or the "Inverted W." This puts a TON of stress on the elbow and shoulder and can throw a pitcher's timing off. While he could pretty much throw bullets, he wasn't going to last. And yes, before you ask, I consider ideal pitching mechanics to be close to those advocated by guys like Kyle Boddy (webmaster of drivelinemechanics.com), Chris O'Leary (webmaster of chrisoleary.com), and Rick Peterson (former A's and Mets pitching coach...so before someone says "Dr. Mike Marshall," I merely advocate good arm timing and not getting your elbow way above shoulder level, not inventing a new motion or refusing to budge on anything). Anyway, back to Ryan Mills...

Ryan Mills broke down before most pitchers with his type of mechanics, though. It seems likely he was overthrowing, too; in his second year of pro ball (1999...he only pitched in 2 games in 1998), Mills K'ed 70 in 95 innings. Not terrible. But he walked 87, gave up 121 hits, and surrendered 94 earned runs. An 8.91 ERA and a 2.19 WHIP. Ugh. However, he did get better from the standpoint of effectiveness. In 2000, despite posting a dismal 3-13 W/L record (I'm not fond of W/L records), he pitched 152 innings, gave up 148 hits, and K'ed 131. But he still walked 98 and had a 1.62 WHIP. His ERA stood at 4.74. By the time he found a semblance of control in 2001, he blew his arm out.

The Twins, who'd drafted Mills, converted him into a reliever in 2003 (after struggling again with his control in a starting role in 2002). He did okay that year, but once again blew his arm out in 2004. At the age of 27, he was out of baseball. Before someone says I'm about to deem all pitchers with mechanics similar to Mills to be automatic busts, however, I'm not. I do believe they're at significantly higher risk and guys like that have a lesser chance at sustained success, but I don't believe they'll automatically go up in smoke. Look at Don Drysdale. Or Jake Peavy. Or Bert Blyleven. Or John Smoltz. I don't particularly like any of those guys' mechanics, but hey, it worked for them.

Bottom line, I'm here to HELP. Not preach about how a guy will be a complete failure because his arm action stinks or his timing is awful or he throws too many sliders or whatever. Do I believe a guy like Tyson Ross or Tim Melville has as much of a chance to succeed as a guy like Brian Matsuz or Lance Lynn? No. I don't. But could the former succeed above and beyond the latter? Yes, and therein lies my premise. I would avoid spending that much money on cards of the former. The latter, however, who have "safer" mechanics; I would be willing to a bit more because there's more chance to succeed in the long term.

As for pictures of my autographs and cards, I'm still working on figuring those out. Give me some time, I'm getting used to blogger.com. ;)

Welcome to my Blog!

Glad you're taking the time to view my blog! Here, you'll find posts about baseball cards, autographs, and a little extra (occassional eBay buying tips as well as how to predict some pitching prospects). I'll be posting daily about cards, players, autographs, and in the beginning, just trying to get a general feel for how everything turns out. I believe a lot can change about a blog over a short period of time, so we'll see where it takes us. You'll also find one nonsensical tagline per blog post because it amuses me, and hopefully you. Right now, however, I've got a Mets/Phillies game to watch. I'll add on some more afterwards.