As I believe I said when I first defined the term sleeper, I do not always use it to refer to prospects, at least with baseball cards. Therefore, today's sleeper post, which covers two pitchers once considered aces, will make no mention of prospects.
The picture above is of two 2006 Bowman Originals signed cards of Dontrelle Willis (2006 Bowman) and Francisco Liriano (2006 Bowman Parenth-RC). If you were to have bought these cards in the off-season between 2006 and 2007, you likely would have spent a decent amount of money on them (at least as much as the somewhat unpopular Bowman Originals set would allow). Nowadays, however, you can find these cards on eBay for less than $10. I consider both of them to be very good values. Now, let's break them down individually and see why I think so.
Dontrelle Willis was, in 2005, one of the most ballyhooed pitchers in baseball. A 20 game winner, Willis was seen as a rising star and the future ace of the Florida Marlins. In fact, the Marlins were so confident in Willis that they dealt away ace Josh Beckett to the Red Sox. And it was all downhill from there for the man they called the D-Train.
The first thing one notices about Dontrelle Willis, if they've ever seen him pitch, is his really funky windup. He turns halfway around, kicks his leg high into the air, and then spins back, arms and legs flying every which way. How then would I evaluate Dontrelle's mechanics? Just as I would those of any other pitcher. Willis makes the M, but not in the conventional way that most pitchers do. Most pitchers flip their elbows up after making the M. But Dontrelle drops his elbow safely below shoulder level extremely quickly. Although his M is unlikely to cause injury inunto itself, it could still cause a minor timing problem. But honestly, if Dontrelle can repeat his delivery, I don't think it's going to be as big an issue with most of the pitchers with this flaw.
But there is one thing that Dontrelle Willis does that I don't like. When he follows through, he flies open with his glove and seems to pay his glove side shoulder little attention. This has led Dr. Tom House, USC's pitching coach, to say that Willis has the worst glove side mechanics he's ever seen. Although I disagree with a lot of what Dr. House has to say about a pitcher's arm action, I in general agree about what he says regarding glove side mechanics.
The Detroit Tigers have not overlooked what Dr. House has been saying. They've tried redesigning his mechanics with a focus on staying closed. But Willis has struggled with repeating his new delivery. Perhaps if he can go back to his old mechanics with the lone modification of keeping his glove side shoulder closed, he'll be able to recapture some of his lost magic.
At this point in his career, I believe Dontrelle Willis to be a reclamation project who needs a change of scenery. Can some project-friendly pitching coach tap Willis' talent? Probably. Look at other pitchers who were written off due to a need to change scenery and/or inability to repeat their mechanics that came back...Oliver Perez, Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, and Heath Bell, to name a few. Am I guaranteeing Willis can even be a shadow of his former self? No. But am I saying it's possible? Yes.
Willis' certified signed cards go for very little on eBay. Ignore the BIN's for now and go straight for the auctions. You can definitely score a card for under $15, probably for under $10, and if you're lucky, under $5-$6. Don't spend too much on a signed card of the D-Train, but don't rule him out, either.
Then we have Francisco Liriano. Obtained in the disastrous (for the Giants) A.J. Pierzynski trade by the Minnesota Twins, Liriano missed the entire 2007 season recovering from Tommy John Surgery after having a spectacular 2006 season. Liriano was loaded with talent. He threw a terrific fastball, a flat out filthy slider, and a good changeup. So, how would I categorize him mechanically?
Francisco Liriano, with regards to his mechanics, is actually a bit of an oddity. Before he had TJ surgery, he was a nightmare. He made the M (and violently), he hyperabducted his elbow, he had a max effort delivery, he threw a ton of supinated sliders...everything about him had a warning sign written all over it. But after he came back, he changed.
Francisco Liriano, post-TJ surgery, no longer makes the M. Although his mechanics are still less than ideal, the glaring flaws are gone. Most pitchers, even after returning from an injury, barely (if at all) change their mechanics. Liriano is a very notable exception. Further, to remove stress on his UCL, he's throwing fewer sliders. All of a sudden, Liriano has gone from trainwreck to very promising pitcher with the potential to stay in the Majors for a significant amount of time.
But even after his change, Liriano still had one thing going against him: he was spending virtually the entire 2008 season in the Minors. Granted, he was dominating AAA ball, but he was still in the Minors. When he came back to the Majors, he was no longer eye-popping. Pretty good, but no longer the super-ace the hobby was expecting or hoping for. But what a lot of hobbyists forget is that he's still recovering.
Liriano's BABIP is not abnormally low. It's actually right in the league average range. That means that if he stays healthy (and he probably will), there's no reason to think that he'll stop putting up an ERA+ of 120. His K/9 will also probably go up a little, although not to 2006 levels. This guy is something special and while he's beginning to lose his sleeper status, I'd buy while I still could. He's far more a lock than Willis to be a top-flight starter, perhaps even a number two or even number one again. Although the days of $10 pack cert Liriano autographs are over, you can still get him for under $20 (even with BIN's), and I would encorage you to try for him while he's still at that price.
Anyway, I'm back to blogging and loving it. More tomorrow.
